Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
VST
Vistra Corp.
conviction
Vistra sells electricity from a large fleet of gas and nuclear plants and has signed twenty year supply contracts with Amazon and Meta. Its profit forecast does not yet count those contracts or a pending $4 billion acquisition, while the shares have fallen roughly a third and now trade near their low for the year.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $141.34 |
| 30-day move | -9.2% |
| Position in 52-week range | 10 |
| From the 52-week high | -35.7% |
| Average daily volume | $606.5M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Power generation company benefiting from surging AI data center electricity demand.
Standing judgment
About 36% off the high and only about 6% above the 52-week low, down 10.2% in thirty days and below both the 50 and 200 day averages. That is the worst momentum in the fund. Q2 lands 2026-08-07, and the shared PJM and FERC colocation overhang is the same one weighing on CEG.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | +6 | Cheapest name in the power bucket at 10.3x EV/EBITDA on a guide that excludes both the Cogentrix acquisition and the signed Meta contracts, but the most recent evidence is a reaffirmation rather than a raise and the print is two days away. | Q1 2026 reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8-$7.6B and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925-$4.725B, with a 2027 midpoint opportunity of $7.4-$7.8B. Both figures exclude the $4B Cogentrix acquisition, about 5.5 GW across ten gas plants, signed 2025-12-31 and still not closed as of toda |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Reaffirmed guidance that deliberately excludes a $4.7B acquisition and signed hyperscaler contracts, against a 35% drawdown, means the market is paying less for more contracted earnings than it was a year ago. | FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $6.8-$7.6B adjusted EBITDA and $3.925-$4.725B adjusted FCF before growth, excluding Cogentrix ($4.7B, pending) and the Meta PPAs. 20 year PPA with Amazon Web Services for nuclear supply; 20 year PPAs covering more than 2,600 MW of zero carbon output across three nuclear p |
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | +33 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Reaffirmed guidance that deliberately excludes a $4.7B acquisition and signed hyperscaler contracts, against a 35% drawdown, means the market is paying less for more contracted earnings than it was a year ago. | FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $6.8-$7.6B adjusted EBITDA and $3.925-$4.725B adjusted FCF before growth, excluding Cogentrix ($4.7B, pending) and the Meta PPAs. 20 year PPA with Amazon Web Services for nuclear supply; 20 year PPAs covering more than 2,600 MW of zero carbon output across three nuclear p |
| 2026-07-31 | 43 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 40 | +18 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 22 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 22 | -34 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 56 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 41 | -27 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 68 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 72 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 78 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 76 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 80 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 72 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |