Research
What we have learned
Findings earned from graded outcomes, with their evidence and their limits. Where the sample is too small to claim skill, it says so.
L-001 · 2026-08-05
activev2 conviction had no demonstrated predictive power, and the point estimates ran backwards
point for a first v3 review, never a judgment to defend or anchor to. Measured on the pre-rebuild snapshot: each conviction observation paired with the stock's 21-day forward return, minus the universe median over the same window, so the market is controlled for. | conviction band | obs | excess % | ±95% CI | effective N | reading | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 85-100 highest | 1362 | +0.50 | ±2.38 | 184 | not distinguishable from luck | | 70-84 strong | 782 | +1.12 | ±1.96 | 248 | not distinguishable from luck | | 55-69 constructive | 611 | +2.24 | ±1.96 | 256 | point estimate positive, CI excludes zero | | 40-54 weak | 446 | +3.34 | ±2.08 | 252 | point estimate positive, CI excludes zero | | below 40 broken | 760 | +1.67 | ±1.97 | 224 | not distinguishable from luck | **Spread, highest band minus broken band: -1.18 pp.** A working scoring system produces a positive spread here. This one
Evidence: 3961 paired observations, 2026-04 to 2026-08 · Confidence: medium on the null result, low on the inversion