Conviction / Shovels
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor
conviction · held at 3.5%
Taiwan Semiconductor manufactures essentially every advanced chip this portfolio depends on and raised both its growth and spending plans in July after a quarter with margins near 68%. It committed another $100 billion to Arizona at the same time, which reduces the tariff risk that had been the main policy worry, and it still trades at about 20 times forward earnings.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $417.15 |
| 30-day move | -3.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 76 |
| From the 52-week high | -12.9% |
| Average daily volume | $6.2B |
| Weight in the book | 3.5% |
| Since last rebalance | +4.8% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Fabricates virtually every leading AI chip; agentic AI's insatiable silicon demand flows through TSMC's advanced nodes.
Standing judgment
About 13% off the high at roughly 20x forward earnings. The Arizona commitment materially blunts the tariff threat that had been the live policy risk; what remains is the permanent Taiwan discount, which is already in the multiple rather than newly worsening.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 91 | +4 | The single point of failure for every accelerator in the fund just raised both growth and capex plans, and still trades near 20x forward, which is a favourable entry for a business with no substitute. | Q2 CY26 reported 2026-07-16: revenue $40.20B (+33.7% y/y) at the top of guidance, gross margin 67.7%, operating margin 60.3%. FY26 revenue growth guidance lifted to slightly above 40% in USD and capex raised to $60-64B from $52-56B. On the same day an additional $100B Arizona commitment took total a |
| 2026-08-05 | 87 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): An irreplaceable monopoly raising both revenue growth and capex guidance while still carrying the cheapest multiple of any name in the bucket. | Q2 2026 revenue NT$1,270.38B (US$40.2B), up 36.0% year over year and 12.0% sequentially; gross margin 67.7%, above its own forecast; FY26 revenue growth raised to slightly above 40%; 2026 capex raised to $60-64B with 70-80% going to advanced nodes and 10-20% to advanced packaging; C.C. Wei cited age |
| 2026-08-05 | 87 | +3 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): An irreplaceable monopoly raising both revenue growth and capex guidance while still carrying the cheapest multiple of any name in the bucket. | Q2 2026 revenue NT$1,270.38B (US$40.2B), up 36.0% year over year and 12.0% sequentially; gross margin 67.7%, above its own forecast; FY26 revenue growth raised to slightly above 40%; 2026 capex raised to $60-64B with 70-80% going to advanced nodes and 10-20% to advanced packaging; C.C. Wei cited age |
| 2026-07-31 | 84 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 91 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 88 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 86 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 84 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 86 | -7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 93 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 94 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 92 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 91 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 93 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 94 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |