Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
TLN
Talen Energy
conviction
Talen sells power from the Susquehanna nuclear plant and has a very large long term supply deal with Amazon that mostly starts delivering in 2029 and beyond. Its recent jump in capacity auction revenue came from offering more plants rather than from higher prices, which matters because the share price already assumes those future revenues.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $333.76 |
| 30-day move | -9.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 22 |
| From the 52-week high | -26.0% |
| Average daily volume | $261.3M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Nuclear-adjacent power assets directly supply AI data center campuses, benefiting from long-term power purchase agreements.
Standing judgment
Talen's Susquehanna nuclear plant is a genuine source of firm clean power for PJM data centers, but it is one of several PJM independent power producers and the thesis survives without it. The July 2026 PJM base residual auction for 2028/2029 cleared 10,180 MW for Talen at $325 per MW-day, about $1.2B of capacity revenue, but the clearing price actually fell 1.3% from $329.17 and the revenue jump came from bringing 52% more megawatts, not from pricing power. FY26 guidance of $1.75-$2.05B adjusted EBITDA was reaffirmed. At $339 the stock is 24.8% off its high after a recent six day run of roughly 30%, and the market is capitalizing 2028/2029 capacity revenue today.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The Amazon contract and capacity revenue are real, but the auction result the story rests on showed flat pricing and long dated delivery, and the current price already extrapolates it. | PJM 2028/2029 base residual auction (announced Jul 14 2026): 10,180 MW cleared at $325/MW-day, ~$1,208M capacity revenue, versus $805M for 2026/2027; clearing price down 1.3% from $329.17, so the ~50% revenue gain came from ~52% more MW offered. Amazon PPA: ~$18B of revenue over a contract running t |
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | +26 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The Amazon contract and capacity revenue are real, but the auction result the story rests on showed flat pricing and long dated delivery, and the current price already extrapolates it. | PJM 2028/2029 base residual auction (announced Jul 14 2026): 10,180 MW cleared at $325/MW-day, ~$1,208M capacity revenue, versus $805M for 2026/2027; clearing price down 1.3% from $329.17, so the ~50% revenue gain came from ~52% more MW offered. Amazon PPA: ~$18B of revenue over a contract running t |
| 2026-07-31 | 40 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 59 | +25 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 34 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 31 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 40 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 24 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 43 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 41 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 60 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 58 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 64 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 60 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |