Conviction / Adjacent Beneficiaries
S
SentinelOne Inc.
conviction
SentinelOne's automated security assistant is attaching to about 40 percent of customers, but the amount of genuinely new business it added barely grew at all last quarter. It is a distant third in its market and much of the interest in the stock is speculation that a larger company buys it.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $21.07 |
| 30-day move | +16.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 100 |
| From the 52-week high | +0.0% |
| Average daily volume | $141.9M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AI-first endpoint security using autonomous response aligns perfectly with defending against AI-generated threats.
Standing judgment
SentinelOne is a subscale third player in endpoint security with roughly $1B ARR against CrowdStrike's $5.5B; the thesis plays out identically whether or not this company exists. Trading near its 52-week high at $21 on takeover speculation as much as fundamentals, which is a corporate-action bet rather than a thesis bet. A bid would pay, and the absence of a bid leaves a decelerating asset.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 48 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Net new ARR growth of 1% is the direct opposite of a visible economic re-rate, so despite good AI product attach the company is not demonstrating that agent adoption is expanding its economics. | Q3 FY2026 ARR up 23% y/y but net new ARR growth only 1%. FY2027 revenue growth target outlined at approximately 20%, below the 22-23% run rate. Purple AI attach rate 40% with triple-digit growth; acquisitions of Observo AI (data pipeline) and Prompt Security (GenAI runtime security). Recurring takeo |
| 2026-08-05 | 48 | -34 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Net new ARR growth of 1% is the direct opposite of a visible economic re-rate, so despite good AI product attach the company is not demonstrating that agent adoption is expanding its economics. | Q3 FY2026 ARR up 23% y/y but net new ARR growth only 1%. FY2027 revenue growth target outlined at approximately 20%, below the 22-23% run rate. Purple AI attach rate 40% with triple-digit growth; acquisitions of Observo AI (data pipeline) and Prompt Security (GenAI runtime security). Recurring takeo |
| 2026-07-31 | 82 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 80 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 71 | -17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 88 | +10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 78 | -12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 90 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 85 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 76 | -8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 84 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 93 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 89 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 93 | +35 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |