Conviction / Adjacent Beneficiaries
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
conviction
Palantir nearly doubled its revenue in the latest quarter, with its US commercial business up about 149% and bookings up more than 150%. The shares are still flat over the past year despite that growth, which tells you how much optimism was already in the price.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $160.80 |
| 30-day move | +19.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 54 |
| From the 52-week high | -22.5% |
| Average daily volume | $7.2B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AIP platform enables enterprise agentic AI workflows; strong government and commercial positioning.
Standing judgment
Up 21% in thirty days after a roughly 30% single day move, still 23% below the high, at about 86x forward earnings and 47x forward sales. Note the shares are flat over twelve months against roughly 90% revenue growth, so the multiple is compressing even as the business compounds. That is a slow de-rating, not a bottom.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 70 | -2 | The operating numbers are unimpeachable and improving, but this sits at the application layer the doctrine explicitly warns about, and the entry after a 30% one day move into roughly 47x forward sales is poor. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-08-03: revenue $1.94B (+93% y/y), US commercial revenue $764M (+149%), US commercial TCV bookings $2.132B (+153%), a record Rule of 40 score of 155, adjusted free cash flow $1.22B, and the first quarter above $1B in GAAP net income. FY26 revenue guidance raised to $8.154-$8.16B |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): This is the single clearest observed conversion of agent adoption into dollars anywhere in public software, with growth accelerating rather than decaying and guidance raised by roughly $500M mid-year. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.935B, up 93% y/y and 19% sequentially; U.S. commercial revenue $764M, up 149% y/y; U.S. government $809M, up 90%. FY2026 guide raised from $7.65-7.66B to $8.15-8.16B (82% growth), U.S. commercial guide to $3.42B+ (134%). Record 220 deals at $1M+, 70 at $10M+. Rule of 40 of 155%; a |
| 2026-08-05 | 72 | +11 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): This is the single clearest observed conversion of agent adoption into dollars anywhere in public software, with growth accelerating rather than decaying and guidance raised by roughly $500M mid-year. | Q2 2026 revenue $1.935B, up 93% y/y and 19% sequentially; U.S. commercial revenue $764M, up 149% y/y; U.S. government $809M, up 90%. FY2026 guide raised from $7.65-7.66B to $8.15-8.16B (82% growth), U.S. commercial guide to $3.42B+ (134%). Record 220 deals at $1M+, 70 at $10M+. Rule of 40 of 155%; a |
| 2026-07-31 | 61 | -8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 69 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 63 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 65 | +31 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 34 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 43 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 32 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 29 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 21 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 18 | -36 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 54 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 52 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |