NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

92

conviction · held at 10.6%

Nvidia supplies the chips at the centre of the computing buildout, and its latest guidance calls for about $91 billion in a single quarter without counting any sales into China. It also locked up more than $500 billion of long term memory supply in July, which removes one of the few genuine limits on how many chips it can ship.

What we judge

Conviction 92

The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.

How essential it is 95

Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.

What we measure

Facts from market data, not judgments.

Price	$221.20
30-day move	+12.3%
Position in 52-week range	79
From the 52-week high	-6.5%
Average daily volume	$29.5B
Weight in the book	10.6%
Since last rebalance	+9.0%

Why it is in the fund

Thesis

Dominant GPU supplier for AI training and inference; agentic AI multiplies compute demand per task.

Standing judgment

Only about 6% below the 52-week high while the rest of the chain sits 15% to 34% down, so the discount is in the multiple, not the price. Q2 FY27 lands 2026-08-26 and is real event risk to size around rather than avoid.

What changed, and why

Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.

Date	Conviction	Change	Cause	Evidence
2026-08-05	92	+10	Recalibrated to the clarified scale, and substantively because the entry test is the forward multiple rather than the drawdown: at roughly 21x forward NVDA is the cheapest large accelerator name in the fund on a guide that assumes zero China compute revenue.	Q1 FY27 reported 2026-05-20: revenue $81.6B (+85% y/y), data center $75.2B (+92%), non-GAAP gross margin 75.0%. Q2 FY27 guided to $91.0B plus or minus 2% with China data center compute explicitly excluded. 2026-07-24 SK Group partnership valued by NVDA at over $500B including long-term SK Hynix HBM4
2026-08-05	82	flat	first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Compounding at extraordinary scale with guidance that assumes zero China, but the entry is full and merchant GPU share is slowly ceding ground to custom accelerators.	Q1 FY27 revenue $81.6B; Q2 FY27 guide $91.0B plus or minus 2% with non-GAAP gross margin 75.0% and explicitly no China data-center compute assumed; FY27 tax rate guided 16-18%; Vera Rubin unveiled at GTC 2026 and ramping; $8B China H20 charge already absorbed with no recovery in guidance.
2026-08-05	82	-17	first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Compounding at extraordinary scale with guidance that assumes zero China, but the entry is full and merchant GPU share is slowly ceding ground to custom accelerators.	Q1 FY27 revenue $81.6B; Q2 FY27 guide $91.0B plus or minus 2% with non-GAAP gross margin 75.0% and explicitly no China data-center compute assumed; FY27 tax rate guided 16-18%; Vera Rubin unveiled at GTC 2026 and ramping; $8B China H20 charge already absorbed with no recovery in guidance.
2026-07-31	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-30	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-29	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-28	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-27	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-26	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-25	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-24	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-23	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-22	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-21	99	flat	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row
2026-07-20	99	+1	migrated from v2 (cause not recorded)	v2 `scores` row