Conviction / Shovels
MRVL
Marvell Technology
conviction
Marvell raised its revenue outlook to about $11.5 billion this year and roughly $16.5 billion next year on record orders, with data center now three quarters of its business. The shares are down about a third from their June high, but the reason is no longer purely sector sentiment, because there are now reports that a major customer moved its next chip design elsewhere.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $216.25 |
| 30-day move | -6.2% |
| Position in 52-week range | 58 |
| From the 52-week high | -34.4% |
| Average daily volume | $5.9B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Custom AI silicon and electro-optics for hyperscalers position Marvell at the heart of agentic AI networking infrastructure.
Standing judgment
About 34% off the high but still roughly 48x forward, so the drawdown has not made this cheap. Earnings 2026-08-27. Losing one custom silicon socket is material at this size, which is a different kind of risk from the sector wide de-rating the price implies.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 76 | -6 | Cut from 82 because the standing judgment said there was no company specific bad news and that is no longer true: reports that Amazon moved next generation Trainium design work elsewhere attack the custom silicon leg directly, so the evidence is complicating rather than converging. | Q1 FY27 reported 2026-05-27: revenue $2.418B (+28% y/y), data center 76% of revenue. FY27 raised to about $11.5B and FY28 to about $16.5B, roughly $1.5B above the prior outlook, with acquisitions of Celestial AI and XConn. Against that, reporting that Amazon shifted next generation Trainium design w |
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Guidance was raised and bookings hit records while the stock fell by a third on sector sentiment, which is a dislocation rather than a deterioration. | FQ1 2027 revenue $2.42B, up 27.6% year over year, EPS $0.80; full-year FY27 revenue outlook raised to approximately $11.5B and FY28 guided to roughly $16.5B on record AI bookings; data-center revenue $1.83B, roughly 76% of total; stock fell from an all-time close above $316 in early June to roughly |
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | +54 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Guidance was raised and bookings hit records while the stock fell by a third on sector sentiment, which is a dislocation rather than a deterioration. | FQ1 2027 revenue $2.42B, up 27.6% year over year, EPS $0.80; full-year FY27 revenue outlook raised to approximately $11.5B and FY28 guided to roughly $16.5B on record AI bookings; data-center revenue $1.83B, roughly 76% of total; stock fell from an all-time close above $316 in early June to roughly |
| 2026-07-31 | 28 | -24 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 52 | +3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 49 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 34 | -12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 46 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 49 | -34 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 83 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 84 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 80 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 82 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 82 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 80 | +62 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |