Conviction / Adjacent Beneficiaries
INTU
Intuit Inc.
conviction
Intuit told investors it lost customers on price during tax season and cut its outlook, then reduced its workforce by about 17 percent. The stock is nearly 59 percent below its high, which is a large discount but also a signal that cheap automated alternatives are pressuring what it can charge.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $323.10 |
| 30-day move | +15.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 13 |
| From the 52-week high | -58.9% |
| Average daily volume | $1.4B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Tax prep, bookkeeping, and financial planning are early targets for fully autonomous AI agents.
Standing judgment
Intuit is peripheral to the backbone and is currently demonstrating the losing side of agent economics, where cheap automated alternatives compress its pricing power rather than expand its take. Down 58.7% from its 52-week high at $325, which is a severe de-rating that creates real mean-reversion optionality. The 17% workforce reduction is a genuine cost story that could show up in margins within a year, and there is an active securities class action covering August 2025 to May 2026.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 45 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The company said in plain language that it lost on price to more price-sensitive alternatives and cut guidance, which is evidence of AI-adjacent pricing pressure rather than of AI-driven economic benefit. | Stock fell about 20% in one day on May 21 2026, from $383.93 to $307.07, after fiscal Q3 2026. Management stated it did not have the tax season it expected, faced pressure among the most price-sensitive DIY filers, and that it lost on price. Full-year TurboTax revenue growth guidance cut from 8% to |
| 2026-08-05 | 45 | -18 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The company said in plain language that it lost on price to more price-sensitive alternatives and cut guidance, which is evidence of AI-adjacent pricing pressure rather than of AI-driven economic benefit. | Stock fell about 20% in one day on May 21 2026, from $383.93 to $307.07, after fiscal Q3 2026. Management stated it did not have the tax season it expected, faced pressure among the most price-sensitive DIY filers, and that it lost on price. Full-year TurboTax revenue growth guidance cut from 8% to |
| 2026-07-31 | 63 | -8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 71 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 65 | +28 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 37 | -22 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 59 | -9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 68 | +19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 49 | +17 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 32 | -14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 46 | +37 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 9 | -20 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 29 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 35 | -31 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |