FTNT
Fortinet Inc.
conviction · held at 3.5%
Fortinet beat expectations with revenue up 26% and product sales up 52%, driven by customers replacing ageing firewall hardware, and it raised its full year forecast. Part of that growth comes from price increases rather than more units, and the equipment replacement cycle behind it has a natural end.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $165.49 |
| 30-day move | +4.3% |
| Position in 52-week range | 95 |
| From the 52-week high | -2.9% |
| Average daily volume | $917.2M |
| Weight in the book | 3.5% |
| Since last rebalance | +45.1% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Unified security platform protects the expanding edge-to-cloud attack surface that autonomous AI agents create.
Standing judgment
About 4% off the high at roughly 48x forward and 15x sales, the cheapest security name in the book, but the analyst consensus is Hold and the average target of about $161 sits below the current price. The refresh cycle driving product revenue is finite by construction.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 62 | -12 | Cut 12 points because the standing judgment was a stale v2 carryover and the fresh evidence reframes the name: the strong Q2 is a firewall refresh and price increase story, which is a good business result but not evidence for the agent backbone thesis, and structural role is lowered to match. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-07-29: revenue $2.05B (+26% y/y) above the high end of guidance, billings $2.37B (+33%), product revenue $773M (+52%), record non-GAAP operating margin of 38% (+490 basis points), non-GAAP EPS $0.90 (+41%), free cash flow $966M, with FY26 guidance raised to $8.02-$8.18B. Manage |
| 2026-05-10 | 74 | +21 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-09 | 53 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-08 | 68 | +18 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-07 | 50 | +9 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-06 | 41 | -16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-05 | 57 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-04 | 51 | +16 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-02 | 33 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-05-01 | 25 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-04-30 | 27 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-04-29 | 23 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |