Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
EQIX
Equinix Inc.
conviction · held at 6.0%
Equinix operates the buildings where companies, networks and cloud providers physically plug into each other, and it delivered its biggest forecast increase ever on record customer bookings. It also raised its multi year growth outlook, but the building programme it announced will consume cash for several years and its next quarter guide came in light.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $1,050.73 |
| 30-day move | +2.7% |
| Position in 52-week range | 81 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.9% |
| Average daily volume | $628.2M |
| Weight in the book | 6.0% |
| Since last rebalance | +3.0% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Global interconnection and colocation leader where agentic AI workloads require low-latency access to distributed infrastructure.
Standing judgment
About 7% off the high at roughly 24.4x 2026 AFFO per share, sitting on its 50 day average. The capex plan of $5-7B a year through 2029 is the cash drag that has kept this from re-rating on the raise.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 80 | +2 | The largest guidance raise in company history plus a lifted 2027-29 outlook is real evidence, but a Q3 guide below consensus and a $5-7B annual capex step keep this short of the top bands. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-07-29: revenue $2.625B (+16% y/y), adjusted EBITDA $1.396B at a record 53% margin, AFFO per share $11.78 (+19%) against $11.25 expected, record 9,700 net interconnection adds, gross bookings +23%. FY26 AFFO per share guidance raised to $42.69-$43.29 and the 2027-29 revenue grow |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The company just raised both the current year and the multi-year outlook on demand it describes as broad based across inference and sovereign workloads, and the interconnection network effect is the most durable moat in the physical layer. | Q2 2026 (Jul 29): revenue $2.625B +16.4% y/y vs $2.59B consensus; adjusted FFO per share +18% normalized constant currency; annualized gross bookings $424M, +23% y/y and second highest quarter on record; record 9,700 net interconnections added; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $10.21-$10.29B (11-12% |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | -8 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): The company just raised both the current year and the multi-year outlook on demand it describes as broad based across inference and sovereign workloads, and the interconnection network effect is the most durable moat in the physical layer. | Q2 2026 (Jul 29): revenue $2.625B +16.4% y/y vs $2.59B consensus; adjusted FFO per share +18% normalized constant currency; annualized gross bookings $424M, +23% y/y and second highest quarter on record; record 9,700 net interconnections added; FY26 revenue guidance raised to $10.21-$10.29B (11-12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 86 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 88 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 86 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 92 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 91 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 92 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 92 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 93 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 91 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 92 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 92 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 90 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |