Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
DLR
Digital Realty Trust
conviction · held at 2.0%
Digital Realty is re-signing expiring leases at rents about 25% higher than before and sits on a record queue of signed leases that have not started billing yet. It raised its profit forecast in July and added another $410 million of annual rent from two leases signed after the quarter closed.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $194.01 |
| 30-day move | +10.9% |
| Position in 52-week range | 77 |
| From the 52-week high | -6.8% |
| Average daily volume | $699.9M |
| Weight in the book | 2.0% |
| Since last rebalance | +11.6% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Data center REIT benefiting from explosive AI compute demand and agentic workload growth.
Standing judgment
About 7% off the high at roughly 23.7x 2026 core FFO after an 11.7% thirty day move. Watch that the headline $2.73 FFO included $188M of non recurring promote income; the $2.13 ex promote number is the one that matters.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | +8 | A raised guide, 25% cash renewal spreads and $410M of post quarter leasing make this the clearest evidence convergence in the physical layer, held below the top band because the landlord seat itself is substitutable. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-07-23: core FFO per share ex promote $2.13 (+14% y/y, a record), record colocation and interconnection bookings of $108M, cash renewal spreads above 25%, signed but not commenced backlog of $1.9B annualised base rent at 100% share. FY26 core FFO per share guidance raised to $8. |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Pricing power on renewals plus a backlog covering roughly a third of in place revenue makes double digit FFO growth through 2027 unusually well underwritten, and the shares have de-rated even as the numbers were raised. | Q2 2026 (Jul 23): core FFO per share ex-promote $2.13, +13.9% y/y; renewal rents +25.4% cash, +32.0% GAAP; record $1.9B annualized GAAP base rent of signed but not commenced leases at 100% share, about 30% of in place data center revenue; $108M of 0-1MW plus interconnection bookings and $20.5M inter |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | +20 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Pricing power on renewals plus a backlog covering roughly a third of in place revenue makes double digit FFO growth through 2027 unusually well underwritten, and the shares have de-rated even as the numbers were raised. | Q2 2026 (Jul 23): core FFO per share ex-promote $2.13, +13.9% y/y; renewal rents +25.4% cash, +32.0% GAAP; record $1.9B annualized GAAP base rent of signed but not commenced leases at 100% share, about 30% of in place data center revenue; $108M of 0-1MW plus interconnection bookings and $20.5M inter |
| 2026-07-31 | 54 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 54 | +29 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 25 | -46 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 71 | -14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 85 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 70 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 76 | +12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 64 | +15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 49 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 41 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 60 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 56 | -27 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |