Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
DBRG
DigitalBridge Group Inc.
conviction · held at 5.0%
DigitalBridge agreed to be bought by SoftBank for $16.00 per share in cash, shareholders approved in April, and the deal is expected to close in the second half of this year. The shares already trade within a few cents of that price, so there is almost nothing left to gain and several regulatory approvals still outstanding.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $15.93 |
| 30-day move | +1.0% |
| Position in 52-week range | 100 |
| From the 52-week high | +0.0% |
| Average daily volume | $51.8M |
| Weight in the book | 5.0% |
| Since last rebalance | +0.8% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
NVIDIA's emphasis on connecting distributed data centers into 'large AI factories' drives demand for data center infrastructure and connectivity solutions
Standing judgment
At $15.92 against a $16.00 deal price, that is about 0.5% of gross upside for an indeterminate holding period. The pre deal 52-week low was $8.94, so the downside on a CFIUS or client consent failure is roughly forty times the upside. Nothing about this is a view on the thesis.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 28 | -5 | Cut below the broken threshold on forward return alone: the entire remaining upside is a gross spread of roughly half a percent to a fixed take private price, against a break scenario that halves the stock, and there is no fundamental exposure to the thesis left to hold. | SoftBank agreed on 2025-12-29 to acquire DigitalBridge at $16.00 per share in cash, approved by stockholders on 2026-04-23, closing guided to the second half of 2026 with an outside date of 2027-03-29. Still outstanding are CFIUS, FERC, FCC, Monetary Authority of Singapore and UK FCA approvals plus |
| 2026-08-05 | 33 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Forward return is a sub one percent merger spread against real deal break risk, which is a worse expected outcome than cash and has nothing to do with the fund's thesis. | SoftBank Group agreed to acquire DigitalBridge for $4B, $16.00 per share cash (announced Dec 29 2025); stockholder approval Apr 23 2026 with ~96% of votes cast in favor on ~69% of shares outstanding; closing conditions include US antitrust, foreign investment and sectoral approvals plus consents rep |
| 2026-08-05 | 33 | -61 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Forward return is a sub one percent merger spread against real deal break risk, which is a worse expected outcome than cash and has nothing to do with the fund's thesis. | SoftBank Group agreed to acquire DigitalBridge for $4B, $16.00 per share cash (announced Dec 29 2025); stockholder approval Apr 23 2026 with ~96% of votes cast in favor on ~69% of shares outstanding; closing conditions include US antitrust, foreign investment and sectoral approvals plus consents rep |
| 2026-07-31 | 94 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 89 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 92 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 94 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 94 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 89 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 91 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 86 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 86 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 90 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 88 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 92 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |