Conviction / Adjacent Beneficiaries
CRWD
CrowdStrike Holdings
conviction · held at 2.0%
CrowdStrike is being paid to secure the automated software companies are now deploying, and that product line grew 250% in a single quarter while new annual contract value rose 32%. The business is performing well, but the shares trade above where most analysts value them and the company is still not profitable on a reported basis.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $212.78 |
| 30-day move | +9.3% |
| Position in 52-week range | 96 |
| From the 52-week high | -2.2% |
| Average daily volume | $2.0B |
| Weight in the book | 2.0% |
| Since last rebalance | +4.7% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AI-native cybersecurity platform; agentic AI increases attack surface, driving demand for autonomous defense.
Standing judgment
Within 3% of the high, GAAP unprofitable on a trailing basis, at roughly 39x ARR and about 162x forward earnings, with a consensus target roughly 9% below the current price. Acquisitions are being funded partly with stock. Constructive business, unresolved price.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 66 | -3 | Operationally this is one of the better businesses in the book, but endpoint security is not a bottleneck the agent buildout must route through, and at roughly 39x ARR with the consensus target below the price there is no entry to argue for. | Q1 FY27 reported 2026-06-03: revenue $1.39B (+26% y/y), record Q1 net new ARR of $256M (+32%), ending ARR $5.51B (+24%), record free cash flow $468M, AI detection and response ending ARR up 250% quarter over quarter. FY27 net new ARR growth guidance raised by 520 basis points to about 27.7% at the m |
| 2026-08-05 | 69 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Net new ARR growth reaccelerated and management raised the full-year net new ARR growth outlook to an acceleration over the prior year, with a specifically AI-attributable product line already producing measurable ARR rather than pipeline talk. | Q1 FY2027 (reported June 3 2026): record Q1 net new ARR $256M, up 32% y/y; ending ARR $5.51B, up over 24%. FY net new ARR growth outlook raised to 27.7% at midpoint, an acceleration versus prior year. AI Detection and Response ending ARR up more than 250% sequentially with Q2 pipeline already above |
| 2026-08-05 | 69 | +2 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Net new ARR growth reaccelerated and management raised the full-year net new ARR growth outlook to an acceleration over the prior year, with a specifically AI-attributable product line already producing measurable ARR rather than pipeline talk. | Q1 FY2027 (reported June 3 2026): record Q1 net new ARR $256M, up 32% y/y; ending ARR $5.51B, up over 24%. FY net new ARR growth outlook raised to 27.7% at midpoint, an acceleration versus prior year. AI Detection and Response ending ARR up more than 250% sequentially with Q2 pipeline already above |
| 2026-07-31 | 67 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 65 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 61 | -19 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 80 | +11 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 69 | -3 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 72 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 78 | +12 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 66 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 76 | +8 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 68 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 83 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 78 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |