Conviction / Power and Physical Layer
CEG
Constellation Energy
conviction
Constellation runs the largest nuclear fleet in the country and cleared nearly 19,000 megawatts in July's regional power auction, worth roughly $2.2 billion a year. The shares are still down about a third from their high on worries about how power markets will be redesigned, even though the contracted business got better rather than worse.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $264.57 |
| 30-day move | +10.4% |
| Position in 52-week range | 20 |
| From the 52-week high | -35.9% |
| Average daily volume | $824.0M |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
Nuclear fleet provides the 24/7 carbon-free baseload power that hyperscaler AI data centers increasingly require.
Standing judgment
About 36% off the high at roughly 22.6x forward and 14.4x EV/EBITDA, having bounced 7.5% in thirty days off the July trough. Q2 lands 2026-08-06, tomorrow. The live risk is PJM filing a market based capacity framework at FERC, which has reportedly paused hyperscaler colocation talks; Citi cut its target to $297 on that.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 86 | +8 | The contracted business improved materially while the stock fell a third, and the July capacity auction put a hard number on revenue the market was treating as speculative, but a print tomorrow and pending PJM market redesign leave the timing leg open. | PJM 2028/29 capacity auction on 2026-07-14 cleared 18,875 MW for Constellation at $325 per MW-day, roughly $2.24B of gross annual capacity revenue. Q1 2026 adjusted operating EPS $2.74 (up $0.60 y/y) on revenue of $11.1B against about $8.5B expected, the first full quarter of Calpine, with FY26 adju |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A sector wide de-rating on AI capex payback fears has cut the multiple by a third while the actual contracted cash flows and generating fleet roughly doubled, which is a valuation reset rather than a thesis break. | Calpine acquisition closed Jan 7 2026 ($16.4B; 50M shares plus ~$4.5B cash), nearly doubling capacity to ~55 GW and guided to ~20% 2026 EPS accretion. Q1 2026 revenue $11.1B vs $6.8B a year earlier, diluted EPS $4.49 vs $0.38, adjusted EPS $2.74 vs $2.53 consensus; FY26 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1 |
| 2026-08-05 | 78 | +5 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): A sector wide de-rating on AI capex payback fears has cut the multiple by a third while the actual contracted cash flows and generating fleet roughly doubled, which is a valuation reset rather than a thesis break. | Calpine acquisition closed Jan 7 2026 ($16.4B; 50M shares plus ~$4.5B cash), nearly doubling capacity to ~55 GW and guided to ~20% 2026 EPS accretion. Q1 2026 revenue $11.1B vs $6.8B a year earlier, diluted EPS $4.49 vs $0.38, adjusted EPS $2.74 vs $2.53 consensus; FY26 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $1 |
| 2026-07-31 | 73 | -10 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 83 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 78 | -4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 82 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 82 | +4 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 78 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 84 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 82 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 88 | +5 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 83 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 76 | -6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 82 | +58 | ⚠️ v2 rank-normalization artifact, unexplained move | v2 `scores` row |