Conviction / Hyperscalers and Platforms
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
conviction · held at 10.5%
Amazon's cloud arm grew almost 37% last quarter, its fastest in more than four years, while earning a 39% margin on that business. The company also raised its spending plans for the year to about $220 billion and said rising memory prices were part of the reason, which is the main pressure on its spare cash.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $272.79 |
| 30-day move | +10.9% |
| Position in 52-week range | 84 |
| From the 52-week high | -5.0% |
| Average daily volume | $15.8B |
| Weight in the book | 10.5% |
| Since last rebalance | +10.3% |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
AWS Bedrock agents, massive cloud infrastructure, and internal agentic AI deployment across logistics.
Standing judgment
Only about 5% below the high at roughly 30x forward, so nothing about the price is a gift. The unresolved leg is free cash flow at $220B of capex, now with memory inflation named as a driver, which is a cost input that got worse this quarter rather than better.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 87 | +5 | AWS reaccelerated to its fastest growth in eighteen quarters at a 39% segment margin, which confirms the metered compute thesis outright, but there is no entry discount at 5% off the high with capex rising. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-07-30: net sales $200.6B (+20%), operating income $27.5B (+43%), AWS $42.2B (+36.7% y/y, fastest in eighteen quarters) at a $169B run rate and a 39.4% operating margin of $16.6B. The AI and custom silicon businesses each exceed a $25B run rate. 2026 cash capex raised to about $ |
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): AWS growth is accelerating rather than decelerating while operating income still expands under record capex, which is the exact economic signature this bucket is looking for. | Q2 2026: AWS revenue $42.2B, +36.7% YoY and the fifth straight quarter of acceleration, fastest in 18 quarters. Total net sales $200.6B (+20%), operating income $27.5B (+43%). AWS backlog $496B growing triple digits. 2026 cash capex raised to ~$220B from ~$200B, with Q2 alone at $53.1B, and margins |
| 2026-08-05 | 82 | -16 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): AWS growth is accelerating rather than decelerating while operating income still expands under record capex, which is the exact economic signature this bucket is looking for. | Q2 2026: AWS revenue $42.2B, +36.7% YoY and the fifth straight quarter of acceleration, fastest in 18 quarters. Total net sales $200.6B (+20%), operating income $27.5B (+43%). AWS backlog $496B growing triple digits. 2026 cash capex raised to ~$220B from ~$200B, with Q2 alone at $53.1B, and margins |
| 2026-07-31 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 98 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 97 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 96 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 98 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 98 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 97 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 96 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 96 | -1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 97 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 96 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 96 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |