Conviction / Shovels
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
conviction
AMD more than doubled its data center revenue year over year and signed a partnership to supply up to two gigawatts of its new chips to Anthropic. The shares still fell on the results because profit margins came in below expectations and management said that pressure continues for now.
What we judge
The view on expected return from here, 0 to 100.
Whether the thesis could succeed without this company at all. This moves slowly, and only when the company's position genuinely changes.
What we measure
Facts from market data, not judgments.
| Price | $487.32 |
| 30-day move | -5.6% |
| Position in 52-week range | 78 |
| From the 52-week high | -16.7% |
| Average daily volume | $14.4B |
Why it is in the fund
Thesis
MI300X GPUs offer a credible alternative for AI inference workloads, capturing share as agentic AI diversifies the silicon supply chain.
Standing judgment
About 17% off the high at roughly 44x forward, and it fell on the print despite beating on revenue, profit and guidance. That is the market saying the bar is now volume shipment of MI450, not another guide. Second source rather than bottleneck, so the thesis survives without it.
What changed, and why
Every move in this number carries the reason it moved. A score does not change without new evidence.
| Date | Conviction | Change | Cause | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | 75 | +1 | The Anthropic 2 GW commitment is the strongest third party validation AMD has ever had, but gross margin missed and management guided to further margin pressure, so the evidence nets out roughly where it was. | Q2 2026 reported 2026-08-04: revenue $11.5B (+50% y/y), data center $6.7B (+107% y/y) against about $6.5B expected, adjusted EPS $1.66. Q3 guided to about $13.0B at roughly 56% non-GAAP gross margin. GAAP gross margin came in at 54% versus 56% consensus on Helios ramp costs, and the CFO guided to co |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | flat | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Genuine second-source share gains with data-center revenue more than doubling, but the post-beat selloff shows the price already assumes the ramp works. | Q2 2026 revenue $11.54B versus $11.25B consensus, adjusted EPS $1.66 versus $1.60; data-center revenue $6.7B, up 107% year over year, 58% of total; Instinct MI400 series launched including MI455X and MI430X; Q3 guide approximately $13B plus or minus $300M, about 41% growth, non-GAAP gross margin rou |
| 2026-08-05 | 74 | +5 | first v3 judgment (v2 score was uninformative, see L-001): Genuine second-source share gains with data-center revenue more than doubling, but the post-beat selloff shows the price already assumes the ramp works. | Q2 2026 revenue $11.54B versus $11.25B consensus, adjusted EPS $1.66 versus $1.60; data-center revenue $6.7B, up 107% year over year, 58% of total; Instinct MI400 series launched including MI455X and MI430X; Q3 guide approximately $13B plus or minus $300M, about 41% growth, non-GAAP gross margin rou |
| 2026-07-31 | 69 | -15 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-30 | 84 | flat | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-29 | 84 | +1 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-28 | 83 | +7 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-27 | 76 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-26 | 74 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-25 | 72 | -18 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-24 | 90 | +18 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-23 | 72 | -2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-22 | 74 | +2 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-21 | 72 | +6 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |
| 2026-07-20 | 66 | -14 | migrated from v2 (cause not recorded) | v2 `scores` row |